The Swing Alpha trading strategy is not based on picking the latest hot stock or deciding if the market is bullish or bearish. Nor do we encourage our clients to go 'all in' on just a handful of stocks. Our clients are busy people who do not have time to micro-manage positions or lose sleep from worry. We also won't promise 20%+/month gains, an aggressive strategy that will end in disaster.
Portfolio TradingOur strategy involves 'trading the portfolio', where we treat the portfolio as one single trade. Several dozen small trades are made so that the risk of any individual position is negligible. If some unforeseen event gaps down a stock 50% overnight, and your position size is only 4% of your entire portfolio, you wouldn't wince at a 2% draw-down. This strategy also protects you from the occasional losing streak - the number one way a retail trader blows his/her account.
Like a Traditional Hedge FundBlack swans are those unforeseen events that can destroy a years worth of profits in a single week. Here at Swing Alpha trades are carefully selected to counter hedge for a market neutral portfolio. We perform intense correlation analyses to maximize portfolio diversity, investing in large caps, small caps, commodities, currencies, metals, treasuries, VIX, and even the occasional penny stock.
We also provide temporal diversity - some trades are short term, others more long term focused. Here at Swing Alpha it is about conservative risk adjusted returns, to prioritize capital preservation over out-sized gains. You can sleep well knowing your portfolio is protected.
Asymmetrical GainsOur trades are designed to be asymmetric. We are not always right, but our winners win big and our losers lose small. In fact, with our 3:1 profit/losses (risk/reward) ratio we'd need to lose on 76% of all our trades just to take an average loss. The below chart Fig. 1 shows how a trader can make higher profits with a 50% win rate than with a 87.5% win rate using asymmetric trading. We also look for stocks that are fast movers, so that profits are made quick and capital is efficiently re-invested into the next trade.
Fig. 1 profit calculations for different asymmetric ratios showing how a 50% win ratio can be more profitable than a 90% win ratio
What to Expect
Expected holding times are between 5 to 90 trading days, with 5-7 trade alerts per week. While it is always ideal to enter trades ASAP, our trade alerts are not so time sensitive - you often have between hours and days to enter the trade. At any time your portfolio could have between 20 and 40 positions, not unlike a typical hedge fund. For a $50k account, that would mean a typical position is around $2k, and a per trade risk of only $100. We do all the complicated position sizing calculations for you so that the more volatile trades do not overwhelm your account. And lastly, we give you carefully determined stops that protect against the unforeseen - without normal daily volatility stopping you out too early.
New Members: Building Your Portfolio (Important Notice!)
The Swing Alpha strategy is slow and conservative. After joining we will slowly build your portfolio up, allocating about 4% each day in positions until your portfolio is approximately 90% allocated. This ideal allocation could take approximately two months.